Open the Damn Schools

441.

Odd number, 441.

The number itself doesn't say much. Could be big, if compared to the number 1, could be small, if compared to 1,000,000. Could be tiny, if compared to 10,000,000. Or, it could be infinitesimal.

in·fin·i·tes·i·mal

/ˌinfinəˈtes(ə)m(ə)l/

adjective - extremely small.

an indefinitely small quantity; a value approaching zero.

So, let's say 441 compared not to 1, or 1,000,000 or even 10,000,000... lets compare it to 100,000,000!

44 ÷ 100,000,000 would equal 0.000004%. Would you agree that for all practical purposes, that would be infinitesimal? Of course, it is! Statistically speaking, it's damn near zero.

Let's put that number 441 into perspective. Baseball players get roughly 500 at-bats a year. To arrive at 100,000,000 at-bats, a ballplayer would have to play for 200,000 years! If he had 441 hits over that span, he would only reach base once every 453 years! Can you imagine?!?! 162 games a year x 453 he would only reach base once every 73,386 games!

Would you be afraid to pitch to that guy? Would he strike fear into your heart? Would you change your routine on the mound for him? Would you wear protective gear in case he hit the ball at you? Would you consider staying home and not even showing up for the game?

Of course not.

Seems 441 really is a small number! Truly infinitesimal!

So what is the significance of 441?

That is the total number of lives lost - under the age of 24 - with COVID (not from COVID) in the USA since January. And what is the significance of 100,000,000? That is the total number of people in the USA, under the age of 24.

And for this, they closed schools?

If your baby is under the age of one, the odds of them contracting and dying, not just from COVID, but COVID, Pneumonia, and Influenza combined is 25,561 / 1... or just 0.00003% of the population of that age group.

Children 1 - 4 years of age? 119,648 / 1... or 0.000008% of the population of that age group.

Children 5 - 14? (the true school-age children) 220,398 / 1... or 0.000004% of the population of that age group.

People age 15 - 24? 56,315 / 1... or 0.00001% of the population of that age group.

Remember, these numbers include COVID, Pneumonia, and Influenza combined.

Follow the Science?

We've known since at least May, that children were far less likely to be infected than adults, and that if they were infected, were not only far less likely to die, but the large majority of cases were simply asymptomatic. This, from a study done in Iceland - which was doing testing and contact tracing from the beginning...

"Children under 10 are less likely to get infected than adults and if they get infected, they are less likely to get seriously ill. What is interesting is that even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents."

and...

"If the Icelandic conclusion is accurate, it would be a strong argument for reopening schools, suggesting that children would not be at harm from exposure to each other, and that teachers would be similarly unlikely to catch the virus from their students. (Teachers could catch the virus from other teachers and other adults in the school.)"

Now, let's look at the number of deaths involving COVID, but let's leave out Pneumonia and Influenza.  Again, these numbers reflect the population of that age group, not the larger population in general, which would skew the numbers even farther off the scale of probability.

Under the age of one?  Odds are 171,956 / 1 or... 0.000005% chance.

1 - 4  years old?              Odds are 1,052,912 / 1 or ... 0.000001% chance.

5 - 14 years old?             Odds are 1,171,261 / 1 or...  I don't know, it's so small it broke my calculator

15 - 24 years old?           Odds are 115,684 / 1 or... 0.000008%

And still, we keep our schools closed?

The data and science, doesn't support closed schools.  You can find some studies that say differently, you can find opinions that vary, but none of them support the above data made available by the Centers for Disease Control. You can say a child's viral load is the same as adults, but the data doesn't support that.  You can say children are just as much at risk for dying, but the data doesn't support that.  You can say children are just as likely to infect others, but the data doesn't support that.  You can give anecdotal evidence to the contrary, but the data doesn't support that.

It's time for politicians to sheath their agendas and put our children back in school.  The harm they are doing to our little ones, forced to stay at home, to give up friends and healthy outlets for their anxieties, is beyond the pale.  It's time for teachers to come out of the shadows and do their job, the same as people who work at Walmart, or those who drive a truck, or work at a restaurant.

And if teachers don't want to?  If they somehow believe they are far too important than every one else working? Fine, stay at home, but your spot should be filled by any qualified and willing teacher we can find to do the job. 

It's time.

Open the damn schools.  

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